Article: http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-30333520071105
This article talks about how buyers are demanding for natural rubber and the supply will not be able to sustain the high demand. The strong demand is mainly from China because of China’s booming economy. Last year China imported 1.6 million tonnes of natural rubber to make running shoes and tires. Also, global consumption of natural rubber is expected to rise. This creates a problem for the supply market because the world’s largest natural producer, Thailand, may decrease about 3 million tonnes due to expected heavy rains next year. In addition, the second largest producer, Indonesia, is expected to remain to produce about 2.8 million tonnes due to climate change and poor yield. Finally the third largest producer, Malaysia, may lose 250,000 hectares of land for plantation due to industrialization causing production rate to drop.
This article relates to supply, demand, and elasticity in chapter 2. In chapter 2, it is suggested that if a product is demand inelastic the price of the product will not affect the demand of the quantity very much. In addition, if the supply is inelastic, a change in the price will not affect much of the supply of quantity available. We can see that natural rubber is demand and supply inelastic. Even though the price of it is increasing, the demand for natural rubber is still robust. But the quantity supplied will be reduced due to weather condition, shifting the supply curve, and the price of the supply will increase. This is shown in the article, when the supply of natural rubber decreases and the price increases. We can also see in this situation the supply and demand is not at an equilibrium point because the supplies are not meeting the demands; the supply of natural rubber is lower than demand. A substitute for natural rubber is synthetic rubber, but that is even more expense as it is made from crude oil. Therefore, the margin between demand and supply will continue to widen and will cause the price to increase even more in the future.
I think in order for the supply to meet the needs of the demands, more countries that are able to produce natural rubber should help produce more natural rubber. Substitute for natural rubber will probably not be found very soon and the price of crude oil is very unlikely to drop. So, another way to improve the supply is to have a technological change, if technology can help the tree produce rubber faster the supply of natural rubber will certainly increase. With many countries experiencing industrialization, undoubtedly the demand for natural rubber will remain high.
2 comments:
I agree completely with your suggestions on how to avoid the problem. Some other things they can do are to put some money into an alternative that is cheaper. The synthetic rubber is an alternative, but it is too expensive. If they can develop a new type of rubber for tires and shoes that is less expensive, it will solve the problem. Another way to solve the supply problem is to recycle a lot of old rubber such as flat tires and worn out shoes. This would definitely increase the supply of rubber and also help the earth by recycling. Hopefully next year the supply of rubber will be back up and we can be more prepared for another coincidence such as this.
It is scary to hear that there will be a problem for the supply of rubber because when you think about it, a lot of things are made out of rubber. The three largest rubber producing countries Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia produce about 72% of the world's rubber together. If all 3 countries are going to lower in production, there are going to be some serious problems. Also, I noticed that these countries are in the same area of the earth (Southeast Asia). If a large tsunami were to hit this area, most of the world's rubber producers would be gone.
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